Citi softens bearish outlook on copper short term

Citi has softened its short-term bearish outlook on copper by lifting its three-month price target to $8,800 a tonne, citing US President Donald Trump’s more relaxed stance on tariffs in recent weeks.

The bank previously gave the red metal a price forecast of $8,000 following Trump’s tariff announcements on April 7.

However, Citi analysts now see a decreased “bearish risk” in the next three months due to several factors, including the surprising strength in Chinese buying, and sustained scrap market tightness due to US scrap stockpiling.

“All point to a more gradual copper price decline through Q2 2025 versus the deeper and faster investor sell-off we previously anticipated, with funds still positioned net bullish,” Citi said in a note this week.

For this quarter, the investment bank is projecting copper prices to average $9,000 per tonne. The metal is currently trading at around $10,300 a tonne on the Comex, and around $9,200 a tonne in London.

In the medium term (next three to six months), Citi’s bearish outlook remains unchanged, as physical copper consumption and manufacturing activity slow down due to US tariffs, especially with the 145% levy on manufacturing hub China.

“We are unsure exactly how far copper prices can fall but our view is still to wait to buy until President Trump reverses tariffs, fully redistributes tariff revenue, or Fed or China “policy puts” kick in,” Citi said.